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EDMONTON — Elections Alberta has verified enough signatures to declare a citizen initiative petition seeking a referendum on Alberta independence successful.
The milestone clears the petition’s signature requirement, but does not settle whether its proposed referendum question can proceed. Its constitutionality remains before the courts, while recent polling suggests supporters of separation would face an uphill battle if the issue ultimately goes before voters.
The petition organized by Stay Free Alberta asked: “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”
Elections Alberta initially counted 286,593 signatures, with 279,337 considered valid. Following verification using statistical sampling, the agency estimated 222,597 verified signatures, comfortably exceeding the 177,732 required for a successful petition.
The verified signatures represent an estimated 7.5 per cent of eligible electors in Alberta.
The Court of King’s Bench previously quashed the chief electoral officer’s decision approving the petition following a judicial review. The ruling found the approval failed to properly consider an earlier decision concerning the implications of separation for Indigenous treaty rights.
Both the Alberta government and Stay Free Alberta appealed the decision.
A Court of Appeal justice subsequently issued a partial stay allowing Elections Alberta to verify the signatures and publicly report the results. Further steps remain on hold pending the outcome of the appeal and additional direction from the court.
The independence petition also attracted considerably fewer signatures than a competing citizen initiative supporting Alberta’s continued place in Canada.
The Alberta Forever Canadian petition collected 456,388 signatures, more than twice the number of verified signatures estimated for the independence initiative.
Meanwhile, recent polling suggests supporters of separation would face a significant challenge in winning a provincewide vote.
A Mainstreet Research survey of more than 3,100 Albertans found 60.1 per cent would vote to remain in Canada if a referendum were held, compared with 28.1 per cent who would vote to leave. Another 11.8 per cent were undecided.
Support for remaining in Canada was strongest in Alberta’s two largest cities.
In Edmonton, 69.3 per cent supported remaining in Canada, while 21.2 per cent favoured leaving and 9.5 per cent were undecided.
Calgary produced similar results, with 67.6 per cent supporting remaining, 21.1 per cent favouring separation and 11.3 per cent undecided.
Separation had its strongest showing outside Edmonton and Calgary. Across the rest of Alberta, 41.7 per cent supported leaving Canada, compared with 43.8 per cent who wanted to remain. Another 14.5 per cent were undecided.
The Alberta government has already scheduled a referendum for Oct. 19 addressing the province’s future within Canada. The ballot is expected to ask Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada or begin a process leading to a second, binding referendum on independence.
Stay Free Alberta lawyer Jeff Rath has argued the group’s verified petition should result in its direct independence question being put to voters instead.
The Alberta government says it intends to proceed with its existing referendum question.
Any further action on the citizen initiative petition remains stayed while the courts consider the appeal.
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