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CHICAGO — If you have travel plans in the near future, you may want to keep an eye out for changes as a growing jet fuel crunch tied to the Strait of Hormuz crisis begins affecting airlines around the world.
Energy analyst Patrick De Haan says the ongoing disruption in the Middle East is creating mounting pressure on global aviation fuel supplies, with Europe considered especially vulnerable.
De Haan says the Strait of Hormuz is not only a key route for crude oil exports, but also for refined jet fuel, with the region previously accounting for about 20 per cent of global seaborne jet fuel shipments.
He says disruptions linked to the conflict could remove roughly 620,000 barrels per day of jet and kerosene supply during the second quarter of 2026, while refinery slowdowns in Asia and Europe are adding further strain.
According to De Haan, jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the conflict began, averaging about US$181 per barrel last week worldwide. Major airlines are already reporting billions of dollars in added fuel costs.097
Several carriers have begun reducing flights. KLM has canceled 160 intra-European routes, SAS has cut about 1,000 flights and Lufthansa is grounding aircraft while trimming schedules. Cathay Pacific has also announced cancellations in Asia.
De Haan says travellers flying between major international hubs are considered lower risk because airlines are more likely to protect profitable long-haul routes. Short-haul flights within Europe and Asia face higher risks of cancellations and consolidation.
He advises travellers to closely monitor airline communications, review travel insurance policies and consider rail alternatives for travel within Europe.
De Haan also warns even if the Strait reopens soon, supply chains could take months to recover because refining and export infrastructure in the region has been heavily disrupted.
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