Elections Alberta web logo
EDMONTON — With less than three weeks to go before Albertans vote on whether to begin the process toward a binding separation referendum, two recent polls suggest supporters of separation face a wide gap in public opinion.
A poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research commissioned by CBC found 72 per cent of respondents plan to vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada in the Oct. 19 referendum question, compared with 23 per cent who favour beginning the legal process required to hold a binding vote on separation. Four per cent were undecided or did not answer.
The survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted between Sept. 8 and 21 and has a reported margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Support for remaining in Canada was broad across regions and demographic groups.
The Janet Brown poll found 76 per cent of Calgary respondents and 73 per cent of Edmonton respondents favoured remaining in Canada. Outside the two largest cities, that figure was 67 per cent.
Women were more likely than men to support remaining, at 78 per cent compared with 66 per cent.
Age also showed differences, though support for remaining was a majority in every group. It stood at 77 per cent among respondents aged 18 to 24, 70 per cent among those 25 to 44, 69 per cent among those 45 to 64 and 81 per cent among respondents 65 and older.
Education produced one of the widest gaps.
Among respondents with high school or less, 67 per cent favoured remaining in Canada. That rose to 82 per cent among university graduates and 87 per cent among those with postgraduate education.
The poll also found 40 per cent of respondents said they felt more attached to Canada than Alberta, while 23 per cent felt more attached to Alberta than Canada. Another 36 per cent said they felt equally attached to both.
A separate Ipsos poll conducted for Global News produced remarkably similar results.
Ipsos found 70 per cent of Alberta respondents would vote for the province to remain in Canada if the referendum were held the next day, while 20 per cent would vote to begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum.
The Ipsos survey was conducted online between Sept. 18 and 22 and included 600 Alberta residents. The Alberta-only results carry a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
When Ipsos asked how Albertans would vote in an actual binding referendum on separation, 74 per cent said they would vote to remain in Canada and 14 per cent said they would vote to separate.
The poll also found a difference in how firmly those choices were held. Ninety per cent of those favouring remaining said their vote was definite, compared with 69 per cent of those favouring separation.
That measure also showed some movement since May. Support for remaining in an actual separation referendum was up two percentage points, while support for separation was down four points.
However, the trend was different on the Oct. 19 process question itself. Ipsos found support for remaining was down two points from May and support for beginning the separation process was up one point, changes the pollster described as statistically insignificant.
The separation question is one of 10 questions Albertans will see on the Oct. 19 referendum ballot.
Ipsos found 76 per cent of respondents were aware the vote includes several questions, while 62 per cent said they planned to vote on all 10.
Among other policy issues tested by Ipsos, 76 per cent supported requiring proof of Canadian citizenship to vote in provincial elections. Sixty-five per cent supported greater provincial control over immigration policy, 59 per cent supported denying provincially funded programs and services to people without legal status in Canada and 56 per cent supported giving provinces greater authority when provincial and federal governments disagree over shared jurisdiction.
The least-supported of those measures was allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs while receiving equivalent federal funding, at 41 per cent.
Taken together, the two polls show a substantial majority of respondents currently favour Alberta remaining in Canada. Ipsos also found support for outright separation has declined since May, though support for beginning the referendum process itself has not shown the same decline.
Comments