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FORT McMURRAY — Alberta separatists continue their struggle to collect signatures in the hope of forcing a referendum on Alberta independence, however new polling and legal realities suggest the movement may be doomed regardless of how many signatures they collect, and Alberta will remain far from achieving actual separation.
Organizers behind the Alberta Prosperity Project petition have declined to publicly disclose the number of signatures they have collected, but they require roughly 177,000 verified supporters by May 2 to trigger a provincewide referendum. Even if that threshold is reached, a new survey from the Angus Reid Institute indicates support for leaving Canada remains well short of what would be needed to succeed at the ballot box.
The Angus Reid poll, conducted online from Feb. 2 to 6, found 65 per cent of respondents would either definitely vote to remain in Canada or lean that way if a referendum were held today. Only eight per cent said they would definitely vote to leave, while another 21 per cent said they were leaning toward separation. Five per cent were undecided.
Fifty-seven per cent of respondents said they would definitely vote to stay in Canada, with another eight per cent leaning toward that position. Support for separation was strongest among a segment of United Conservative Party voters, but the results still point to a divided base rather than the broad, decisive backing required to break from Confederation.
The findings suggest separatists would face a steep climb under the federal Clarity Act, which requires not just a simple majority, but a clear expression of popular will on a clear referendum question before negotiations on secession could even begin. Polling that shows only a small fraction of voters firmly committed to leaving Canada raises doubts that such a threshold could currently be met.
Public opinion also highlights consequences that could further weaken a separation push. Among respondents who said they would vote to stay in Canada, 74 per cent said they would leave Alberta if the province became independent, with most saying they would move elsewhere in Canada. Only 23 per cent said they would remain in an independent Alberta.
Beyond the political hurdles, constitutional experts say separation faces formidable legal barriers, particularly around treaty rights.
In a key ruling in December 2025, Court of King’s Bench Justice Colin Feasby flatly rejected the claim that an independent Alberta could simply inherit Canada’s treaty obligations with First Nations. He found the so-called successor state theory has no legal footing, ruling that the Numbered Treaties are agreements between First Nations and the federal Crown, not the province, and cannot be reassigned without the consent of the Indigenous signatories.
The decision found that Treaties 6, 7 and 8 were signed before Alberta became a province in 1905, meaning Alberta was never a party to those agreements. Feasby also concluded that turning Alberta’s provincial boundaries into international borders would significantly impair treaty rights, including the ability to hunt, fish and travel across traditional territories that extend beyond provincial lines.
The ruling carries particular implications for Alberta’s energy sector. Much of the province’s oil sands lie within Treaty 8 territory, meaning a separate Alberta could face serious legal barriers to asserting jurisdiction over the very region separatists argue would anchor an independent economy. Without the consent of Treaty 8 First Nations, experts say an independent Alberta might not even include the oil sands region separatists are seeking to free from federal oversight.
While the Alberta government later amended legislation to remove the requirement that citizen initiated referendum questions be screened for constitutionality before signatures are collected, Feasby warned the move showed a cavalier disregard for the rule of law.
Taken together, the polling, constitutional thresholds and treaty obligations point to long odds for Alberta separatists. Even if a referendum is triggered, current public opinion suggests the movement lacks the clear and overwhelming support required to leave Canada, and unresolved treaty rights could prevent the province from exiting Confederation as a whole.
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