Frasier institute, Web Media
CALGARY — The Fraser Institute has some pointed words for Alberta ahead of the 2026 provincial budget, arguing governments have repeatedly treated temporary resource windfalls as permanent revenue and increased spending as a result.
A new study released by the institute says that since 1965, Alberta governments increased program spending during nearly half of periods when resource revenues came in higher than forecasts. The report says this approach contributed to debt accumulation when commodity booms ended and revenues declined.
The study examined fiscal policy between 1965 and 2025 and identified 16 years when natural resource revenues exceeded long term trends by more than 15 per cent. In seven of those years, government spending rose by 15 per cent or more, which the report describes as treating temporary gains as permanent income.
Ronald Kneebone, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Calgary and co author of the study, said repeated spending increases during boom periods left governments facing higher costs once revenues fell, leading to borrowing.
The report says Alberta policymakers should focus on long term fiscal sustainability and limit reliance on resource revenue in order to improve stability during future economic shocks.
The institute describes itself as an independent, non partisan public policy organization, while detractors call it a Conservative Think Tank.
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