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VIENNA — Despite the thaw in energy relations between Alberta and Ottawa, and growing optimism in Canada’s oil sector, OPEC plus will hold production steady through early 2026 as the group braces for what it calls signs of oversupply.
The alliance confirmed Sunday it will keep output unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 and approved a long-debated plan to reassess the maximum sustainable production capacities of member countries. The review will run from January to September and will be used to set 2027 quotas.
The move aligns with market expectations that OPEC plus would avoid opening the taps any further after several months of warnings from analysts about a potential glut. The group has restored about 2.9 million barrels per day since April but still holds roughly 3.24 million bpd of cuts that include 1.24 million bpd of voluntary reductions and 2 million bpd of baseline cuts dating back to 2022.
The capacity review will apply to 19 of the group’s 22 members, with exceptions for countries under sanctions. The United Arab Emirates has pushed for updated baselines, arguing its rising production capacity is not reflected in current quotas. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said the new mechanism is meant to improve transparency and help the market “act accordingly.”
Market reaction was modest but positive. Brent crude rose 1.22 percent to $63.14 in early Asian trading, while West Texas Intermediate increased 1.25 percent to $59.28.
The decision sets the stage for potentially tense quota negotiations in 2026 as countries jockey for influence over 2027 production allocations. Angola’s 2024 departure from the group over a quota dispute remains a cautionary example of the political risks inside the alliance.
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